The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Zero clue.
Investors couldn’t figure out what to do today. Futures traded about +25 overnight. They fell to -40 around 6 AM. The index opened about the same and rallied to unch’d by 10 AM, then to +35 about 40 minutes later. The tape leaked value slowly through lunch and we spend the afternoon around -20.Yields came in small and Fed Funds price 68 bips of cuts in 2025.
The news and economic data weren’t meaningful factors and we were left swinging on the technical games of the market. It’s unclear what spurred the intraday race into the S&P early and the slow exodus later. It shouldn’t concern us too much however because the capital flow today was light at 88%.With less-than-usual capital playing these games, we shouldn’t have to spend much time thinking about them.
We’re at a point where tomorrow’s economic calendar is bare and catalysts from now until month-end will likely be geopolitical versus economic. There’s always the chance that weekly jobless data scares investors though.
Unless we get some random headline, it doesn’t seem like the S&P is going to trend anywhere.It seems like the bounce scared the bears off until some big bit of news helps their cause.It also seems like the bulls can’t gin up anymore enthusiasm unless they can break above the 200-day moving average (5748).That feels like a bridge too far without an assist from the headlines as well.
So maybe we’re chopping around without a clue for a spell.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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