The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Limping into the weekend.
Futures dropped from flat to -20 as Europe opened.The futures slipped further as we approached the open and the S&P 500 began trading down about 40 points.The tape rallied a bit during lunch, on the heels of tariff talk from President Trump that suggested the tariffs wouldn’t be so bad. Treasuries didn’t do much during the session and 72 bips are today’s price for Fed cuts in 2025.Volumes were average and the news wires were uninteresting.
Maybe today’s intraday moves were part of the battle to win the week? The S&P closed last Friday at 5639. The bulls and the bears, *if* they care about the weekly performance, had to duke it out around that level. We crossed that price a handful of times today so it’s not obvious that traders were focused on that but it could explain the intraday shenanigans.
In the big picture, today was a yawner. The range for the day was tighter than most previous sessions and investment landscape didn’t shift. We’re essentially continuing to digest the FOMC communications from yesterday and prepare for next week.
Next week’s action, if there is any, will be inspired by a meaningful surprise. Maybe data delivers that surprise but that is a low likelihood. Maybe politicians deliver that surprise but we’ve no reason to think next week will be anything special versus and other week lately. We’re left waiting for a reason to act.
Will one happen? I’m guessing the chances are low, actually. Trump has been talking up April 2nd as Liberation Day. That’s the day the administration’s trade policy is to be unveiled. I don’t see them ruining the surprise early. Who knows though? Predictability is not a characteristic of this administration.
See you Monday, have a great weekend.
-Mike
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