The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Nvidia delivered
Nvidia’s results beat, as expected, and guidance was better than expected. NVDA climbed about 9% and dragged the S&P up with it. The S&P opened about +25 points and climbed further through lunch. The index gave up some gains in the afternoon but finished solidly positive for the day. The yield curve climbed a little. Crude increased a little on its front-end too. Despite the NVDA action, the stock market was still kind of sleepy and capital flow remains light, 84%.
The S&P is just starting to re-trend upward, though the move so far is small and noisy. Fresh all-time highs are only about 100 points away. From a chart standpoint, another rally could confirm a new leg of upside and draw in the momentum players. If we break above the old highs and print new ones, that would confirm the trend and probably draw in even more capital, chasing the upside. The point being that from a technical/chart perspective, a little more upside will go a long way.
The speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh tomorrow could be the fundamental catalyst that sets things into motion also. If he sounds a bit dovish, I think we’re off to the races. If not, maybe this market turns bearish.
There’s a lot riding on what is said in Jackson Hole tomorrow. The stock market just happens to be technically sensitive to whatever Warsh says. The bond market is seeking a meaningful fundamental signal though. It needs to decide what it should do and the speech is crucial. If the bond market moves a lot, then that becomes a strong fundamental catalyst for stocks.
Frankly, I think it’ll be surprising if markets don’t react strongly to Warsh’s speech. Hold on to your hats.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
Visdom Market Commentary
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is general educational information and market commentary and is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.
All market and economic data herein is as of the date hereof and sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The information is subject to change without notice and we have no obligation to update you.
This general market commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The views and opinions expressed constitute the author(s) judgment based on current market conditions, are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other employees of Visdom Investment Group LLC ("Visdom") and Visdom. Past performance and any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable and have sought to take reasonable care in its preparation; however, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Any securities referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by Visdom or by the author(s) in this context. The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision. This information does not constitute Visdom research, nor should it be considered a recommendation of a particular investment strategy or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Investing involves market risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Visdom and its affiliates do not provide legal, tax or account advice so you should seek professional guidance if you have questions.
