Market Commentary

The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.

So quiet

Macro data this morning, while important, didn’t push markets around. It was a bit surprising. Here are some of the important datapoints:

• Personal Income (0.4% vs 0.2% est & 0.2% prior)
• Personal Spending (0.2% vs 0.1% est & 0.3% prior)
• Core PCE Price Index YoY (3.3% vs 3.3% est & 3.3% prior)
• GDP QoQ Annualized (1.5% vs 1.5% est & 1.5% prior)
• GDP Price Index (6.4% vs 6.2% est & 6.2% prior)

Yields climbed some, crude fell small, stocks wandered a little. Capital flow was even lighter than yesterday, 67%.

A quick word about the economic data. The income and spending are healthy. The PCE shows inflation being stubborn. PCE is the preferred measurement of the Fed, so this is important. GDP is the Q2 second estimate but it is tepid. The GDP price data is also the Q2 second estimate but it is bad.

This is not the data mix that helps the Fed make the case for easing. Whether it increases the chance of a hike is debatable. Current market probabilities set a 36% chance for a hike on Sep 16. This data doesn’t allow the market to lean one way or the other. *Maybe* Chairman Warsh will say something the market can decode on Friday.

Today’s data could have been a catalyst but it wasn’t. Nvidia’s earnings tonight are supposed to be a catalyst. Let’s see.

No sense in trying to speculate at this point. We’re along for the ride.

See you tomorrow.

-Mike

Visdom Market Commentary

https://visdomig.com/blogs

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