The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Disinterest.
Headlines are still benign and markets are quiet. Regular hours trading in the US favor the bears lately, however. Futures overnight were flat. Asian markets climbed small. Europe opened up small as well and didn’t go negative until about 8 AM. Our market opened flat, climbed 10 points, and dropped to slightly down. The index lost significant value at 10:30 AM and never recovered. We bounced along -65 points for the afternoon, slipping a bit more into the close. Treasury yields climbed again. The climb was small but the trend higher in rates continues. The implied probability of a 25-bip cut from the Fed on January 28, 2026 is 24%. Bitcoin was essentially flat until 10 AM, it popped nicely higher for 30 minutes and then gave it all back and then some, finishing down about 2% on the day.
The financial landscape continues to be about the same. The mood of the US equity market is bordering on apathy. A quiet stretch had been extremely helpful to the bull market this year but in December the tables have turned. The lack of excitement seems to lull the bulls to sleep and the bears fill the void. The decline in price is orderly and modest and isn’t raising any eyebrows. Market participants are chalking it up to consolidation and year-end risk-reduction.
Maybe that’s true but the S&P just dipped below the 50-day moving average without clear catalysts and that *should* be energizing all the dip-buyers that have made so much money over the last twenty years. While the last half of December is understandably slow and typical investors engage less with markets, they don’t ignore things and walk away. They have craved retracements in stocks like addicts, especially ones without scary headlines as the cause.
And here we are. The prayers have been answered and Christmas came early. But the buyers are frozen.
It’s very strange. For anyone chasing a benchmark, this is a eleventh-hour opportunity, and they are passing on it.
I fully expect the loyal dip-buyers to pounce between now and year end. We’ll see if I’m right or not. Getting long now to front-run them makes sense to me but apparently I’m all by myself with that notion currently.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is general educational information and market commentary and is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.
All market and economic data herein is as of the date hereof and sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The information is subject to change without notice and we have no obligation to update you.
This general market commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The views and opinions expressed constitute the author(s) judgment based on current market conditions, are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other employees of Visdom Investment Group LLC ("Visdom") and Visdom. Past performance and any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable and have sought to take reasonable care in its preparation; however, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Any securities referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by Visdom or by the author(s) in this context. The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision. This information does not constitute Visdom research, nor should it be considered a recommendation of a particular investment strategy or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Investing involves market risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Visdom and its affiliates do not provide legal, tax or account advice so you should seek professional guidance if you have questions.
