The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Fizzle
Investor moods slid backwards some today. Yields picked up a bit. Crude climbed some on the front-end. US/Iran negotiations continued to go nowhere. The risk-off reaction of Friday continues to a lesser degree today. Headlines were fairly tame so other than a lack of progress between the US and Iran, today’s moves seem to be driven my current investor sentiment rather than fresh catalysts.
Perhaps this is just the start of a digestion of the large recent gains of the market. We’ve known that the rally from late March would end at some point and it looks like that point was Thursday. Whether we digest the enormous gains in a sideways or downward path is anyone’s guess but it make just be the nature of markets for us to experience a bit of a cooling of sentiment without clear causes in the news.
That said, bulls are always on the lookout for a fresh upside impulse and Nvidia’s earnings announcement is their go-to event. Nvidia announces after the close Wednesday. Everyone expects them to beat the published estimates. Considering how almost every shareholder also expects significant boosts to guidance, it will be tough for NVDA to beat all the unpublished expectations. We shall see soon enough. NVDA is up 11% month-to-date, with much of that reflecting optimism concerning their coming announcements.
Whether NVDA justifies its recent climb or not, it will certainly be a moment for the entire market.
It could trigger a whole new rally higher or it could justify the digestion period we’ve just begun.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
Visdom Market Commentary
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