The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Sneaking up.
Overnight events were uninteresting and S&P futures did little. The premarket was surprised by the Q3 GDP data (4.3% vs 3.3% est and 3.8% prior). Futures dropped some and yields popped higher as the much stronger US economy data naturally conflicts with a Fed-easing policy path. Additionally, some viewed this old data as the product of political monkey business, subject to future negative revisions. The market didn’t latch on to that narrative however and bulls simply viewed the data as a confirmation of a strong economy and a bright future. The S&P opened about flat and started slowly and steadily climbing around 10:15 AM. Once the index broke over 6900, things really quieted down and chatter about new highs picked up. The implied probability for a 25-bip cut from the Fed in January is lower again, now at 13%.
Data shenanigans drive a perpetually intriguing story for markets in realtime. Who knows what’s true and what’s invented? That goes for both the data and the rumors spun up by the data. More often than not, the rumors are concoctions to help some rationalize things. At some point, when nobody cares too greatly, we’ll know how the US economy did in Q3 of 2025. Until then, markets are operating as though the data is accurate enough. This implies that more growth, in terms of revenues and earnings, is en route. So owning stocks makes continued sense.
It's not a holy mackerel moment, which is why the S&P didn’t leap upwards. It’s a gentle confirmation of what most suspected, that conditions for the bull market are good and continuing. And so the market inches higher.
The chart says buy. The fundamentals say buy. The headlines are conducive to buying.
So that’s what people did. The all-time high for the S&P is 6920. When do you think we break over it?
Markets close early tomorrow (1 PM), see you then.
-Mike
Visdom Market Commentary
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