The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Cruising along.
It was a quiet end to a quiet week. Bitcoin lost some value but it had less impact than yesterday. Overseas markets were tame although Japan fell one percent. The S&P 500 opened around +15 and wandered around somewhat over the session. The yield curve steepened some today, but stocks didn’t mind. Futures continue to price a 25 bip cut from the Fed on Wednesday with 95% probability.
The S&P is quietly approaching all-time highs (6920). The recent news cycle isn’t frightening investors and stocks are climbing accordingly. They are doing it very slowly, which might be a function of the valuations. Or it might be that exciting news is needed to jolt prices materially higher. If the rest of the year remains relatively news-lite, we might see this week’s trading behavior extend through New Year's Eve. For bulls, that would be just fine and it would result in the S&P gaining about 18% for the year.
At some point, we will need to think about the January Effect, what early ’26 might bring, and what positioning in late Dec and early Jan might makes sense. For the next week though, it’s all about waiting for the Fed to cut 25 bips and tell the market what it wants to hear.
This has been the least volatile week of the year and equity investors are heading into the weekend completely unbothered by circumstances. That’s not an indictment of equity investors, by the way. It’s simply revealing the horizon looks serene and the recent sledding has been easy, so investors are exhaling and kicking their feet up.
See you Monday, have a great weekend.
-Mike
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