The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Steadying
Overnight S&P futures traded up about 10 points but fell ahead of the open. The index began the session about -15. Premarket macro data didn’t rock the boat too much but November ADP employment (-32k vs +10k est & +47k prior revised from +42k) was weak. The market solidified its expectations for a 25 bip cut on December 10th in response. Treasury yields came in small across the curve, a good sign for those worried about yield curve steepening. Equities shook off the down open and rallied slowly over the morning, leveling off around +20 in the afternoon. Bitcoin rallied a couple percent last night and stabilized around +1.2% for much of the day. Stability in that market is a welcome development with risk-on implications in traditional markets.
To be fair, today was pretty free from drama. The premarket drop in S&P futures was a curiosity without a clear catalyst and dip-buyers took advantage on the open. The day brought no zinger headlines and investors went about their usual business in a quiet manner. The bulls remain in charge of things and they particularly appreciate news-lite days.
So we don’t have new insights to consider. The usual factors are at play. Consensus view is that we remain in a bull market, the Fed is going to deliver some rate-help in a week, and Bitcoin collateral damage is the concern of the moment.
Status quo is a bullish environment.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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