The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Waiting.
Futures rallied in the premarket because Asia and Europe both rallied nicely. We opened about +20 but drifted back to flat quickly. The S&P 500 wandered around unch’d all day. Treasury yields came in about 4 bips across the curve, a nice day for that market. The House is expected to pass the funding bill tonight and end the government shutdown but it looks like markets need to see the official vote before they do anything more. For the Street, the schedule of the economic releases will be critical. Right now everything is TBD. Another good reason for most investors to stand pat and wait.
There will be many more catalysts than usual over the next couple of weeks. We don’t know when they’ll specifically arrive but get ready to hold on for a ride. If the data is benign, we should trend north. If it surprises, it’s going to be ugly. I honestly don’t think there’s much of a chance of a scenario where we tread water.
I don’t think it makes sense to speculate at this moment. The easy gains from anticipating the government reopening came Monday. If one is going to speculate on the coming economic releases, you’d do it the day before the release, which is TBD. This sets us up to wait.
We’re waiting for the vote to reopen the government.
Then we wait for the publishing of the schedule of the economic releases.
Then we wait for the economic releases.
Then the fireworks.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
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