The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
Feeling along.
Tomorrow’s the big reveal and markets didn’t feel like going too far in any direction before we get the details. The S&P opened down about 20 points and weakened further in early trading, very much like yesterday. The tape bounced and went positive around 11 AM. The rest of the afternoon was quiet, with trading occurring around the unch’d level. In the final hour, the bulls pushed the tape up and the index finished with a modest gain. Yields fell small and 77 bips of cuts are priced into 2025.
Today was quiet. Markets wandered around but didn’t trend significantly. I think most investors realize that whatever they think, tomorrow could leave them with egg on their face. Naturally, they refrained from big moves and speculations. Capital flow was light today, 93%. It seems like market participants didn’t feel compelled to move capital around a day before we learn about the tariff landscape.
The Administration moved their tariff announcement back. Originally they were going to deliver the tariff news tomorrow at 3 PM ET from the Rose Garden. Now they will announce it at 4 PM ET tomorrow. The Admin is still mulling over, discussing, deciding the details. They are also deciding whether to release details to the press in advance or not.
Speculation is that the Admin doesn’t want to trigger an immediate and obvious market reaction. I don’t know whether that’s a political calculation or a market-driven one but it really doesn’t matter in the big picture. The market is going to do whatever it’s going to do. I do wonder whether the Admin knows that it’s about to whack the market with a bearish hammer and is looking to soften the blow.
So while we are waiting for tomorrow, Liberation Day, it’s really Thursday that will matter. Unless the Admin leaks, the info won’t arrive in time to shake up trading tomorrow. If things go as currently planned, we’ll get the news after the close and have time to sleep on it before the next day’s open.
Expect tomorrow to be similar to today, no material trends, with modest chop.
See you then.
-Mike
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