The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Visdom Investment Group, LLC.
No conviction.
Yesterday’s rally was a game-changer for the sidelined bulls. It should have unleashed the Kraken for the longs. Instead futures traded down small overnight and while they ramped in the runup to regular trading, they couldn’t inspire a full-fledged push into stocks. The S&P 500 opened about +10 but dipped to flat by 10 AM. Morning bulls showed up at that point and ramped the index up to +20 but they could only keep it up there for 30 minutes. We rolled over and were flat by lunch. We spent the rest of the session meandering across unch’d. News was quiet. Data was unremarkable. Yields came in a few bips across the curve. It was a very sleepy day for US stocks.
Despite breaking above the 200-day moving average (5754) yesterday, we didn’t see a bullish kick in the pants today. The follow-through is not inspiring the existing longs nor scaring the wary bears. Markets went through the motions. Without a material news catalyst, perhaps that’s to be expected. Considering how relevant chart-ology has been over the last 2 years, I assumed that chart events would carry more weight with the public. Not the case.
The chart is obviously still meaningful, just not vital, in the here and now. Perhaps a news story is needed to confirm the bounce? Or resume the correction?
News that would do that will come in the form of tariff talk, especially April 2nd, but there’s also weekly jobless data on Thursday (225k est vs 223k prior) and maybe Feb Personal Income and Spending on Friday?
My money is on the tariff announcements. The only *kind* of macro data that will significantly move the tape, will be recessionary data. Numbers that are kinda sorta close to expected won’t do much to markets. Markets are on a secret lookout for hints of recession. Nobody is expecting them, but they are worried about them showing up. We all know it’s a risk, but consensus is that it’s not happening, so we presently act as if.
It’s a strange predicament. But we’re in it just the same.
See you tomorrow.
-Mike
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is general educational information and market commentary and is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction.
All market and economic data herein is as of the date hereof and sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The information is subject to change without notice and we have no obligation to update you.
This general market commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The views and opinions expressed constitute the author(s) judgment based on current market conditions, are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other employees of Visdom Investment Group LLC ("Visdom") and Visdom. Past performance and any forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable and have sought to take reasonable care in its preparation; however, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Any securities referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by Visdom or by the author(s) in this context. The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision. This information does not constitute Visdom research, nor should it be considered a recommendation of a particular investment strategy or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Investing involves market risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Visdom and its affiliates do not provide legal, tax or account advice so you should seek professional guidance if you have questions.
